Earth and Environmental Science 11–12 · Year 11

Modelling radioactive decay with dice and calculating a radiometric age

Module 1: Earth’s Resources

Practical, model not builtLow risk

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The idea

Decay is random for each atom yet exactly predictable for a large number, so the parent-to-daughter ratio in a mineral is a clock.

What you need

  • 100 dice per group (or 100 coins, or 100 identical cubes marked on one face)
  • a tray with a lip, tally sheet, graph paper or spreadsheet

How to do it

  1. Throw all 100 dice; remove every die showing a six (a decayed atom) and record how many remain.
  2. Throw the survivors again; repeat for 12 throws or until fewer than five dice remain.
  3. Pool the class results and plot survivors against throw number for one group and for the class total.
  4. Find the throw count at which half remain and compare with the value predicted for a survival probability of 5/6.
  5. Use the ratio of daughters (removed dice) to parents (remaining dice) to read an age from the clock formula, then repeat for real half-lives in the calculator.

What you should see

Expected survivors after n throws are 100 × (5/6)ⁿ: 83.3, 69.4, 48.2 (n = 4), 23.3 (n = 8) and 11.2 (n = 12); the half-life is ln 2 / ln(6/5) = 3.80 throws. One group scatters around the curve and the pooled class total follows it more closely. Age from the clock t = T½ × log₂(1 + D/P): with uranium-238 (T½ = 4.468 × 10⁹ years, BNL NuDat) a daughter-to-parent ratio of 1 gives 4.47 Ga and a ratio of 0.5 gives 2.61 Ga. For carbon-14 (T½ = 5700 years) the daughter, nitrogen-14, cannot be told from nitrogen already present, so the age comes from the fraction of carbon-14 remaining: a sample with one quarter remaining is 11 400 years old.

What changes

What you change
throw number
What you measure
number of undecayed dice
What you keep the same
  • same starting number
  • same decay rule (a six decays)
  • fair dice
  • all dice thrown each round

Common misconceptions

Each of these ideas is wrong, and the activity is a chance to test it.

  • After two half-lives nothing is left.
  • Each atom decays after exactly one half-life.
  • Carbon-14 dates rocks (it dates organic remains younger than about 50 000 years).

Safety card

Low riskLearners carry it out

Hazards

No hazard is listed.

Controls

No control is listed.

Note

No hazardous chemicals or heat sources: record the activity in the school's RiskAssess risk assessment, following the NSW Department of Education Science safety and compliance page; the Chemical Safety in Schools package is not triggered.

Curriculum references

The NSW syllabus outcomes and Australian Curriculum v9 codes this activity supports. They are references, not a verified or complete curriculum alignment.

  • Earth and Environmental Science Stage 6 Syllabus (2017), NESA; current, replaced by the 11–12 Syllabus (2025) from 2028EES11-8EES11/12-3EES11/12-4EES11/12-5
  • Earth and Environmental Science 11–12 Syllabus (2025), NESA; to be implemented from 2028, not yet taughtEES-12-01
  • Investigating Science Stage 6 Syllabus (2017), NESA; currentINS11-9INS11-10
  • Australian Curriculum v9No Australian Curriculum v9 code is listed.

Sources

The pages the author read to write this activity.

  1. www.nsw.gov.au/education-and-training/nesa/curriculum/science/earth-and-environmental-science-stage-6-2017
  2. www.nsw.gov.au/education-and-training/nesa/curriculum/science/investigating-science-stage-6-2017
  3. www.ga.gov.au/education/classroom-resources/introduction-to-relative-and-absolute-dating
  4. www.nndc.bnl.gov/nudat3
  5. www.earthlearningidea.com/PDF/366_Radioactive_dating.pdf

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